The third installment of
this specific web-log was to expand upon four of the prime topics
necessary to underpin an expansion of the nation's High Value
Manufacturing ambition so as to provide future economic traction. At
managerial, staffing, technical and societal (demand) levels, these
consist of:
- Business “Nounce”
- “Can Do”
Enthusiasm
- Multi-Aspect Advanced
Engineering
- Technology +
Arts-Crafts
These overtly
simplified pillars applied to both 'Renaissance' and 'Revolution'
applications across products and services.
However, this expanded
description is momentarily postponed, and is to follow in Part 4.
Instead, recent events
dictates that this Part 3 be intermediate general commentary, given
still existent shudders about the Eurozone's future, about need for
dispassionate observation about Britain's (and indeed much of the
West's) very real human productivity dilemma, the reactive
requirement for very socially attuned “Futurism” propaganda from
government, and the need to re-emphasise the importance of continuing
present heavy-handed broad fiscal and monetary policies.
The 'Mid-Way' Recovery
Under Threat -
Economic indicators for
the UK have and continue to point to slow but ongoing recovery, a
process which itself was always set to be somewhat fluctuating given
the prevailing negative external forces which continue to affect
domestic affairs.
Examples such as: the
decline of the € reducing repatriated income, possibility of Greek
Euro-zone Exit given the 'locked-horns' reality between Syriza and
the Troica, more remote possibility of “Latin Contagion” (reduced
by virtue of a deflated $ and Spanish growth), and any slow-down of
the US and similarly in China.
Although an austerity
averse left-leaning ideology has gained mass appeal – with
Neo-Marxism even gaining popularity in Britain amongst the
disaffected - any substantial decrease in the effort to reduce UK
structural debt (though a painful process) would see the ratings
agencies and in-house investment analysts raise the country's risk
profile markedly with a subsequent rise in the cost of what is wholly
critical capital; the capital required to re-build Britain physically
and socio-economically.
It must be recognised
that for all the rhetoric of emergent 'New Marxist' ideologies
amongst people and politicos. Karl Marx himself was no 'common man'.
Instead a wandering intellectual from a wealthy Prussian family, who
in reality lived very, very far from the squalor of 19th
century factory towns he apparently represented. Instead, amongst the wealthiest merchants, bankers, intellectuals and artists
of Hampstead and Highgate, North London. In cold retrospect,
'champagne socialism' at best, and at worst a self-serving action to
protect and expand personal wealth under any communist / socialist
ideology and system which was emerging and prompting the 19th
century poor to rise and revolt.
Then, as now, it must
be understood that a usury based monetary system is not simply a
capitalist phenomenon. It has been the less well recognised yet
predominant basis for many socialist and even communism regimes,
typically operating at the state industry level. Whichever the 'ism',
the basic methodology of a risk-assessed lending is “priced” in
addition to expectant inflationary / deflationary effects caused by
supply-demand dynamics. Thus aside from the 'greater shared risk'
between lender and borrower of Sharia finance approaches (which
itself has pros and cons), ultimately the cost of lending capital is
the foremost fundamental economic reality.
To this end, the
promotion to the masses of any truly alternative socio-economic
ideology, then as now, is no more than false promise, and ostensibly
denies the individual (and so a nation's peoples en mass) the right
to economic input and reward.
Today, across portions
of the 'real world' – a place wherein the average person has little
time to ponder ideology - the main threat to future economic
stability is the combination of slow economic growth versus high
national debt levels. Such economic tardiness now destabilised yet
further by the introduction of problem inducing popular politics.
Importantly,
investment-auto-motives poses the question as to whether the supposed
'independence' offered by the leaders of the Syriza party will in
fact be historically viewed as the first step towards Sarkozy's long
held idea of a 'Club Med' economic bloc; to include all countries
with a Mediterranean coastline.
This would not only
break the long cherished Eurozone project, but even if seemingly
successful - after having been presented as for the gain of mankind
uniting Christians, Jews and Muslims - the likelihood is that
latterly after any inevitable substantial economic shock, even with
the apparent economic entwinement, blame will be asserted.
Thereafter, Judeo-Christian vs Muslim ranks respectively closed and
truly physical historic warfare re-asserted. Critically, not the kind
of largely media driven psychological cyber-war seen by 'the war on
terrorism', but a fully fledged pan European and pan African war.
To this end,
investment-auto-motives suggests that Syriza not be easily led and
tempted by any interceding others offering new 'promised lands', and
instead agree a realistic solution within the Euro-zone.
Instead of the overly
simplified radical solutions, the sensible Mid-Way economic path
necessarily requiring Stoicism should be maintained by all.
The left-leaning
Keynesian QE programmes boosting investor and business confidence
have been seen to take effect in the USA and UK, with trickle-through
shown in reduced unemployment. Equally, right-leaning focus must
continue to be applied to over-burdensome debt levels, which
themselves rob the socio-economic gains of future growth; such monies
used to pay heavy debts instead of being directed toward people's
income and spending.
Hence, 'leftist'
inspired QE and 'rightist' approved austerity means that Britain (and
elsewhere) continues along the sensible mid-path of a mixed-market
economy, even if macro circumstances dictate that it cannot be as
subtly managed as experienced in the past, and that happy endings
come later rather than sooner.
Need for a “Futurist”
UK National Mindset -
Yet for a full eventual
rebound, the very body of the UK itself – business, politics and
the mass populace - must engender a broad progressive mentality which
promotes a future-forward stance.
Though subtle
'perceptional attunement' has long been played-out through the mass
media channels, there is need for 'expectational re-attunement' of
the masses through very much more more obvious, and less “snide”
(to paraphrase Russell Brand) 'Public Information' coverage.
[NB Many of the younger
generation are very informed and aware (“street-wise”) when it
comes to what was once seen as subtle perceptional re-alignment. For
example, the BBC TV soap-opera EastEnders used the word 'nuclear'
used in a pejorative sense after the Japanese reactor disaster...as
in “he went nuclear on me”, and the now reduced anti-Islam tone
of mass-media, seen more recently in EastEnders by the introduction
of head-scarfed Muslim characters; so as to try and draw back-in very
much alienated British Muslims].
However, in such an age
of authoritarian awareness, the construction of any socially positive
propaganda, will be rife with complexity, with today even the 'social
currency' of the once powerful retro-inspired “Keep Calm and Carry
On” arguably depleted given its trivialised uses.
Nonetheless, the 'art
of the possible' should be explored within the bounds of today's
zeitgeist. .
The prime problem is
that so many people of all notional classes feeling betrayed by
'greedy capitalism' and the devastating socio-economic effects of the
2008 collapse. Furthermore, this large percentage of the population
as a central group excludes those who were economically marginalised
long before the 2008 crash.
However, the problem is
exacerbated when even those who are sensible, middle-aged and well
educated themselves are abjectly alienated via the socio-economic
injustice of employment denial, the fall into poverty and induced
social exclusion and isolation (by design or otherwise), especially
so when over a long period. It seems that for many 'life' itself
simply becomes 'the struggle for empty existence', the causes and
effects inevitably leading to an absolute distrust of of all things
formerly trusted and ultimately society's very construct. This far
more apparent than recognised by mainstream (“comfortably-off”)
politicians and media.
This perception now
prevailing massively amongst a disaffected, even elements of the well
educated youth. But more typically, a sub-set ranging from the
young-folk of ex-mining and industrial regions (often 3rd
generation unemployed), to generations of the educationally deprived
in increasingly ghetto-like inner-city districts (whether black,
white or other). Hence the rise of youth gangs – criminal or not -
for self-identity and mutual support given what they see as the
falsity and remoteness of that which is typically construed as
“sugar-sprinkled” Britishness.
Harsh reality for many
are the economic stresses which create yet further family and group
fragmentation, and so further social issues. Immediate environments
deny the possibility to mentally escape, so as to think rationally
and logically, instead the usual cycle of immediate gratification
sought. So inevitably created the backdrop into which a new era of
class based 'them and us' politics has become the norm.
The ability to create
such a “futurist” national mindset then, whilst undoubtedly
achievable amongst the newer, ambitious and upwardly mobile immigrant
communities, will be an immensely hard task to accomplish amongst
even the remaining squeezed middle-classes of the indigenous
populace. Many had their once comfortable reality shattered either
recently or long ago, with the younger generation born into a
cynically enlightened era.
Without a 'Futurist
Manifesto' -
However, without the
realistic implementation of such a future-facing initiative,
collectivising the hearts and minds of the populace, it seems all to
likely that Britain will increasingly become a laggard nation.
Smaller portions of its
educated and truly productive population are relied upon to try and
prop-up large swathes of the 'forgotten', long unproductive people,
whilst a “mutated middle” increasingly fends for itself.
As highlighted at
Davos, signs are that ramifications of increasingly capable
technology and the proclivity to out-source and “off-shore”
elsewhere (regions where labour costs still sit far below UK levels)
may well see portions of the conventional middle-class mutate, as
lower-cost, highly productive IT continues its substitution of the
administrative and formulaic tasks once undertaken by large swathes
of 20th century middle-class staff, possibly even middle
managers depending upon sector and skill set.
Under this scenario it
is possible to see a return of a broad Luddite faction, with the
machines themselves ironically protected by a swelled number of human
security people, who in time would be supplanted by cheaper automated
(self)defence machinery. The spiralling dystopian outcome of the
common people verses the machines (which protect the wealth and power
of a small sliver of human technocrats) easily recognised.
Thus, whilst this may
still presently appear long-off science-fiction fantasy, without a
new national UK Vision formulated and publicised, the likelihood is
that such a small portion of the population in high-grade
productivity (blue and white collar) could not support or would not
be willing to support the 'forgotten people', whilst the much
degraded middle-classes not only experience immense friction amongst
themselves when seeking any available incomes, but could indeed (once
again) “rage against the machine” that seemingly binds them.
Under such a scenario
the UK would be forced to become a virtual Banana Republic, printing
ever more money to continually deflate the Pound, to provide the
internal illusion of inflationary growth so as to artificially
support its people, and to hopefully provide an ever-lasting FX boost
to its prime “very high value” global exports.
Though unrecognised by
most, and unsurprisingly unstated by any informed long-view
politicians, this outcome is a very real possibility, especially as
the West ages faster than the rest of the world, and if unable to
attract enough truly highly educated young immigrants.
[NB Though of course
many intelligent foreign young will come to the UK for educational
purposes, many may indeed see greater opportunity in returning to
homeland or other EM countries to deploy their skills in productive
and expanding economies. Retaining them in the UK will be key].
Herein given UK and
European woes, the obvious and all to over-used case study of Japan's
economic decline will be cited by many.
The prime difference
being though that although with a population twice Britain's size
(127m vs 62m) throughout the 1990s and 2000s Japan has been
incredibly future-forward regards the applications of its robotic age
in serving the physical and psychological needs of its much
diminished middle-class, relying on strong familial and social ties,
and because of its central unity able to avoid problematic social
friction, beyond extreme margins, as its population size steadies and
eventually diminishes.
To Follow -
Somewhat delayed, yet
the content and tone of which is more pertinent than ever.
- Business “Nounce”
- “Can Do”
Enthusiasm
- Multi-Aspect Advanced
Engineering
- Technology +
Arts-Crafts
These basic pillars
applied in both 'Renaissance' and 'Revolutionary' applications across
current and wholly new products and services.
